Expanding upon the update to the SRS DPS League, I have put together version 1 of the SRS Team Analysis system. Anyone can select a mission, then select the team they wish to take and be given a percentage chance of success or failure.
How it works
Each player has been given an expert rating dependent upon existing and logged criteria.
These are: DPS
Chance of dying
So if a player has a high rating for those four criteria then they will have a correspondingly high Expertise Rating
Then, each mission has been weighted based on my considerable experience in running them over the last few years, so, for example, a Starbase Fleet Alert has a 0 expertise requirement because it has no elite version and is extremely easy. Days of Doom elite has a rating of 400, not because it is that difficult but because it requires all players to know what they are doing. Battle of Korfez is one of the highest at 650 because it requires knowledge and ability, and Khitomer Vortex is higher still at 700 because it requires very high DPS and survivability.
How to use it
Most people will just use this for fun, and that's fine, but for CFOPS who are wondering if their team will succeed or if they are wasting their time they can quickly add the team members and see what their likely chance of success will be, replacing a particular team member with another with a higher rating will increase the chance of success.
Where to find it
Anyone can access the system from the "Team Analysis System" button at the top of any page of the website.
Weightings for success
Each of the four criteria has been given logarithmic style weighting based on their importance in mission success. DPS
Here we see that at low levels of DPS a low multiplier is applied, as the DPS levels rise a larger multiplier is used.
For healing, with the values being so large anyway, but nevertheless important a linear multiplier has been applied
Chance of Dying
Again as the chance of dying is critical a reverse partial logarithmic multiplier is used, reverse because the multipliers above are divided by the chance of dying, so a high sum with a low chance of dying would be divided by 1, thus maintaining the high sum.
None of the above really matter if we are not confident of the numbers. Therefore the higher the confidence we have in the numbers returned from the system the more sure we are that we are correct in the final assessment. Therefore a multiply of up to 2 is used based on very high confidence and only 1 for low confidence. The confidence level itself is derived from the number of logged events: =if(N9>300,"Very High",if(N9>100,"High",if(N9>50,"Medium",if(N9>10,"Low","Not enough data"))))